Impact Hub Manila Fellowship

RE Analytics: Data-driven consulting on renewable energy

by
Harry Bo
Harry Bo | Jul 18, 2016 | in Sustainable Energy Solutions

As the first Renewable Energy Big Data and Analytics Company in the Philippines, RE Analytics aims to provide highly accurate short-term forecasts of wind farm and solar plant power generation, as well as provide highly robust long-term forecasts on electricity demand, and lastly, to model long-term energy mix. RE Analytics is an independent analyst group for the renewable energy sector. The company has been incubated in the Ateneo Innovation Center.

RE Analytics knows that big data analytics is going to be crucial for the evolving energy sector. There are currently no existing data-driven consulting group in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia that is deeply focused on what RE Analytics is capable of. Check out our website at http://reanalytics.io.


The target market of RE Analytics include the energy sector in the Philippines, from generation to distribution, as well as the regulation and policy-making, including the Department of Energy, and in particular, the Renewable Energy Management Bureau (REMB) and Solar Wind Energy Management Division(SWEMD). Potential renewable energy investors, system operators, renewable power producers or turbine owners, renewable energy planning authorities, electric power companies, energy consultancies, and other participants in the electricity market will all rely on data-driven insights that RE Analytics is capable of providing.

Who faces this problem?

Registered generation companies and other market participants must submit generation offers to the Market Operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) a day before the actual delivery of electricity to be considered in the central scheduling and dispatch process. These companies get penalized if they produced too much or too little of the agreed production level of renewable energy.The intermittency of and the lack of sophisticated forecasts for output production in renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar prevents Renewable Energy Project Developers from developing renewable energy projects.Policy makers centered on Renewable Energy lack data-driven insights and research to evaluate optimal policy tools for increasing integration of renewable energy into the country's energy mix.

How does your idea address this problem?

RE Analytics can apply its forecasting models to the wind farms and solar plant data from the Department of Energy and industry partners such as Aboitiz, UPC Renewables, Alternergy, First Gen, and EDC, considering that it is widely assumed that renewable energy is unreliable and unpredictable. Moreover, RE Analytics know that the government and the private energy companies like the ones aforementioned are sure to lose money if they do not forecast next day’s energy production and energy demand. These energy companies get penalized if they produced too much or too little of the agreed production level of renewable energy. Thus, RE Analytics is formed to address this industry problem. Definitely with the Impact Hub grant, RE Analytics will continue to work with the industry, one-on-one, using their proprietary data and benchmarking RE Analytics’ forecasts with already well-established forecasting firms like Enercast, EuroWind, and WEPROG in Germany, where the renewable energy market is stable and well-developed.RE Analytics can apply its climate models and statistical methodologies to forecast short-term renewable energy production for a specific site using data from industry partners such as UPC Renewables and Mindanao Energy Systems (Minergy).RE Analytics can employ its forecasting studies of the energy mix, under different scenarios, e.g. carbon tax on fossil fuel imposed, national renewable energy rollout with increased foreign direct investments, climate change effects on hydroelectric power, in the timeframe 2011 to 2030. Scenario Analyses on the long-term electricity demand will also be studied as any change in the electricity demand affects the energy mix. “What if” scenarios include surge in electricity demand given an inflow of Japanese investors in the electronics industry due to subsidized rates, population growth in new cities, development in the transportation sector (e.g. traffic problem, penetration of electric cars), and development in energy efficiency. Moreover, Last April 29, 2016, President Aquino has signed into law the Philippine Green Jobs Act of 2016 granting special tax deductions and duty-free importation of capital equipment for companies that will help create a “green economy” for the country. Green jobs include jobs that help “protect ecosystems and biodiversity; reduce energy, materials and water consumption through high-efficiency strategies; de-carbonize the economy; and minimize or altogether avoid generation of all forms of waste and pollution.” RE Analytics is poised to develop policy recommendations for the government using its macroeconomic models to assess the employment potential that green policies can offer. Various policy scenarios include jobs made available due to electric vehicles penetration, off-grid solar plant and wind farm deployment, large renewable energy plants construction, energy “refit” buildings (green architecture), duty-free (incentivized) capital equipment importation, and green tourism.

What’s new and unique about your idea?

Simply put, our idea is our research group and turn it into a data-driven analytics and consulting company, and our research group has been deeply involved in research on this kind of problems for several years already. RE Analytics has a reputation with the industry and the government being the most advanced research team in the Philippines in renewable energy with the publications as evidence. Our publications include this: a climate change-based model downscaled on a wind farm in collaboration with the Manila Observatory http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/...876610214009138

How are you going to earn money?

Our customers will pay for the forecasts that we will deliver as reports, using their proprietary data. Think of us like a McKinsey or BCG, but for the energy sector in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia.

Do you already have customers?

RE Analytics is already demonstrating for industry and government the capability to do accurate forecasting. RE Analytics have been sharing results using brand new capabilities to the private sector and the government and they have given us positive feedback. RE Analytics have demonstrated the following key results: RE Analytics performed the first calculations of the effects of climate change on future wind production. With industry grade data, we have downscaled a national climate change model in collaboration with the Manila Observatory using two-years worth of data from 60-m masts in a certain wind farm site. Our study was able to report that the levelized cost of electricity in a certain wind farm site will decrease by 5% every five years for the next 25 years. Wind energy projection that considers the effects of climate change for the expected period of operation of 25 years is used because this gives wind developers an outlook on the power production during the wind farm’s lifetime and would contribute in determining the wind farm’s potential for financial returns. The results of this research show that there is an average five-year period increase of 6% in wind power density in that wind farm site over the next 25 years. A link to the published paper is found here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/...876610214009138 In a new study, RE Analytics developed a new forecasting modeling based on state-of-the-art random forest, extraTrees and support vector regression methods. Shown in the figure is our prediction accuracy. Label is the actual values for average wind speeds. The three methods yields good results which are more than 80% correlation between the actual and predicted values. Among the three methods, Extremely Randomized Trees has the highest correlation which shows that extraTrees provides the strongest predictive performance.

Who is in your team?

  • Mary Lai Salvaña has a MS Applied Mathematics Major in Mathematical Finance from the Ateneo de Manila University.
  • Annael Domingo is currently finishing her MS Electronics Engineering from the Ateneo de Manila University.
  • Harold Jay Bolingot has a BS Computer Engineering from the Ateneo de Manila University.
  • Abigail Christine Chen has a BS Management in Applied Chemistry from the Ateneo de Manila University.
  • Sherdon Niño Uy is a PhD student in Birmingham City University, United Kingdom.
  • Gregory Tangonan, PhD is an adviser to the research group and a member of the faculty in the Ateneo Innovation Center.
  • Nathaniel Libatique, PhD is an adviser to the research group and a member of the faculty in the Ateneo Innovation Center.
  • Gemalyn Abrajano, PhD is an adviser to the research group and a member of the faculty in the Ateneo Innovation Center.

Have you already founded/incorporated your company?

No

What is the intended positive impact on the environment and/or society of your venture?

Transitioning from fossil fuel-based power to more Renewable Energy (RE) will require a major rethinking of the allocation of different kinds of power. RE Analytics recognizes the need of conventional power companies to see Renewable Energy as a predictable and reliable part of the energy mix. Good forecasting can be used in many ways such as generation and transmission, maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading.

How will the Fellowship Program enable you to achieve your ambitions?

Definitely with the Impact Hub grant, RE Analytics will continue to work with the industry, one-on-one, using their proprietary data and benchmarking RE Analytics’ forecasts with established forecasting companies like Enercast, EuroWind, and WEPROG.

Are you living in the Philippines?

Yes

edited on 19th July 2016, 14:07 by Harry Bo

Matt Jaeggi Jul 19, 2016

Wow that looks amazing! Do you already have paying customers? Or was that test-customers?
Keep it up!

Users tagged:

Reply 0

Harry Bo Jul 27, 2016

Hi, thanks for the question!
We've been able to establish research collaboration with industry partners, sort of like a trial period. But we are slowly building our reputation in the industry, and the goal in these baby steps is to acquire long-term clients.

Users tagged:

Reply 0

cool baguiobrittle12345 Jul 19, 2016

A very good idea! I hope you guys will win this.

Reply 0

Jeremie Diaz Jul 20, 2016

Congratulations, Harry for winning the Sprint Challenge. You have now a spot to pitch in front of our jury panel on August 6. We will contact you soon for basic guidelines for the Pitch Day. Thank you and hub on!

Users tagged:

Reply 0

Michael White Jul 25, 2016

You must first have accurate weather data, which is often lacking for wind generating and sun power. How are you able to predict with less than 5% error? Are you taking into account dirty solar panels and fan blades? I like the idea, many companies including Johnson controls and eniscope are offering much the same idea, what makes your design better than their design?

Reply 0

Harry Bo Jul 27, 2016

In our wind energy forecasting study, our research partner was Manila Observatory, and the long-term wind density forecasting was based on a climate model of the Philippines. This is the direction of our company's unique value proposition, that is to integrate weather analytics into our energy forecasting models.

Users tagged:

Reply 0

Share